Iran Conflict Drives Oil Prices Higher Amid Supply Disruptions

Major oil companies are enjoying significant profit increases due to elevated crude prices. The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted supply routes, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, leading to one of the largest supply disruptions in oil-market history.

This disruption has reduced regional oil flows by millions of barrels per day, driving crude prices higher. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Brent crude was priced around $69 per barrel in the July 2026 outlook, with WTI in the mid-$80s.

Market participants have adjusted their expectations accordingly, but remain cautious about the likelihood of a new all-time high by September 30. The probability of this occurring is currently priced at 5.2%, down from 6% a day earlier.