Iran Deal Hopes Send Oil Prices Lower

Oil prices dipped today after reports emerged that the US still sees a path to an Iran deal. According to Al Jazeera, US Vice President JD Vance said an agreement remains possible if Iran 'honor their commitments', and Qatar is passing messages between the two sides.

The possibility of increased oil exports from Iran has sent shockwaves through the market, with WTI November futures plummeting 2.3% to $90.46 a barrel and November Brent falling 1.6% to $103.60. The key point here is that markets can move on changing probabilities well before any physical changes occur.

This 'repricing' tends to hit near-dated futures first, as refiners, producers, and short-term traders do most of their day-to-day hedging and risk management in the front months.