Iran May Be Allowing More Oil Through the Strait of Hormuz for Strategic Gains

More oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran may be deliberately allowing it to happen. Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, suggested that some countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) might be paying Iran a toll, possibly up to 20% of the value of each cargo, to ensure safe passage. While this claim cannot be verified, Iran has reportedly indicated that oil flows through the Strait only because it permits them.

Some may dismiss Iran’s account as an attempt to assert control over a situation that appears to be working against its interests. However, there is a logical explanation. The current situation is unsustainable, with the U.S. bearing enormous costs for escorting oil tankers through the Strait. These costs have risen dramatically since the war began, even though the U.S. does not purchase any of the oil, China does. Essentially, the U.S. has been subsidizing Chinese oil imports, a burden that has increased due to the conflict.

GCC countries are reportedly paying Iran to allow more oil to flow because they anticipate a third round of war in the region. By facilitating oil exports now, they aim to move as much oil as possible before hostilities resume. Iran stands to benefit financially from these tolls, especially as Trump’s blockade has severely strained its economy. However, the full story may involve more than just financial gain. Iran could be strategically allowing oil to flow to create a false sense of security before shutting the Strait down abruptly to shock global energy markets.

The current dynamics suggest a strong likelihood of escalation, with diplomatic de-escalation possible only if Beijing intervenes. Tehran may seek to control the timing and geography of the conflict, potentially initiating the next round of war itself to undermine Trump’s influence.