Iran-US Tensions Fuel Crude Oil Price Volatility

The price of crude oil has been volatile in recent months, influenced by tensions between the US and Iran. In June 2026, NYMEX WTI futures stood at $70.35 per barrel, while ICE Brent futures were at $72.81 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for Middle Eastern crude oil, has been mostly closed to oil deliveries from the region.

The price of oil remains a key factor in determining inflationary pressures and interest rates. Since 2025, NYMEX WTI crude oil futures have ended at $57.42 per barrel, with prices increasing after reaching a low of $55.76 on January 7, 2026.

The conflict between the US and Iran has led to periodic Iranian attacks and retaliatory strikes against neighboring countries hosting US military infrastructure. This has caused price volatility, with WTI crude oil futures rising 39.5% to $93.50 on July 23 before falling back below $80 as diplomatic efforts continued.

The administration is giving diplomacy a chance to succeed, but the IRGC views U.S. patience as weakness and continues to stall for time. A negotiated settlement or regime change in Iran could send crude oil prices lower, while US energy independence reduces the supply impact of Middle Eastern crude oil.