Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows for Next Year

The Iran war continues to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Middle East shut-ins averaged 5.5 million barrels per day in July.

Oil carried through the strait averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter this year, well below the 21.6 million barrels per day in the last three months of 2025. The EIA expects oil disruptions from the Iran war to reach 600,000 barrels per day until the end of next year.

Negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain at an impasse, with President Donald Trump demanding that Iran pay compensation for deaths and damages linked to the war. Tehran has said the strait will remain closed if the US does not accept its conditions, which include lifting American sanctions.