Iran War Drives Global Food Price Spike, Threatening 12% Increase in 2026

Global food prices are set to surge by nearly 12% in 2026 due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, combined with extreme weather across Europe. The war in Iran has disrupted oil and raw material supplies, pushing global diesel prices up 36% year-on-year in July. Fertilizer prices are projected to jump 22% this year.

Tomas Dvorak, senior economist at Oxford Economics, attributed the crisis to the 'US-Iran war and its impact on inputs for food production, mainly oil (diesel), natural gas, and fertiliser'. He emphasized that the most severe impact will be in crops, including grains, fruit, vegetables, and dairy. This will also feed into prices of processed products such as bread, cheese, wine, and oil.

Oxford Economics forecasts a 36% year-on-year spike in wheat prices to $6.92 a bushel by the third quarter of 2026. The war in Ukraine compounds the crisis, as Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly 30% of total global wheat exports and over 10% of corn exports.