Iran's Economic Pressure Tactics Backfire as Gulf Oil Exports Rebound
The economic situation for Iran is becoming increasingly dire as oil exports from the Middle East Gulf region have returned to pre-war levels, excluding Iran itself. According to tanker-tracking and satellite analysis by Kpler, between September 1st and 28th, at least 16.5 million barrels of crude oil left the region, matching the pre-war average for producers other than Iran.
This is a significant increase from March, when the first full month after the war shut down the Strait of Hormuz saw an average of only 6 million barrels per day leaving the region. The revival of oil exports has largely bypassed Iran, which has been unable to export any significant amount of oil since the US imposed a naval blockade in July.
The numbers suggest that Tehran's central wartime bet, aimed at choking off global energy supplies and forcing Washington and Gulf states to deal on its terms, has not panned out as expected. Instead, regional producers have successfully rebuilt their export systems around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's own access remains severely restricted.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Iran is running out of options, with only about 15 million barrels of oil remaining for delivery, mostly bound for China. He predicted that within two weeks, Iran will have 'nothing to trade for anything.'