Iran's Oil Export Bottleneck Shifts to Hormuz Strait

The bottleneck in Iran's oil exports is not the buyer, but rather the Hormuz Strait, where millions of barrels of crude are stuck. According to data from AXSMarine, the amount of Iranian crude sitting in Asian waters peaked at 44.4 million barrels in December and has been steadily increasing since February, when it fell to 22.8 million barrels.

By June, the waiver that allowed Iran to export oil had expired, but the pile continued to grow, reaching 46.0 million barrels by the end of July. This is despite a significant decrease in crude on water in Asia, which fell 23.6% between January and July.

The ratio of floating storage to transit crude has also been increasing, averaging 0.63 since October 2025, with August seeing a sharp decline in transit crude, causing the ratio to jump again.