Iran's Shipping Disruptions Lose Steam as Transits Return to Pre-War Levels
The Iran War continues to unfold, with mixed results for both sides. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, has seen increased transits despite Iranian efforts to disrupt shipping. According to US officials, vessel transits through the southern route have returned to 40% of their pre-war levels.
The IRGC Navy confirmed that they struck one of the tankers on September 17, claiming it was 'illegally' passing through the strait. However, this claim has no legal basis. Iran's actions are likely aimed at giving the appearance of control over the strait and its ability to disrupt shipping.
Saudi Arabia has started diverting oil exports back through the Strait of Hormuz, loading around 60 million barrels at its eastern Port of Ras Tanura for September and October loadings. This indicates that Saudi Arabia assesses exporting through the Strait of Hormuz is currently safer than shipping through the Bab al Mandeb Strait or Red Sea.
A key objective of Iran's campaign against shipping was to maintain oil prices over $200 per barrel, but this has not been achieved as oil prices have remained below $100 per barrel since May. The failure of Iran's efforts suggests that it is facing operational constraints, including limitations on its mine-laying capabilities and targeting cycles.