Iraq Eyes Top Oil Producer Spot with Ambitious Production Target

The Middle East's top oil producer is currently Saudi Arabia, but Iraq may soon surpass it. According to recent statements by new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Iraq plans to raise its oil production to between 8 and 10 million barrels per day within six years.

Historically, Iraq has been known for overpromising on oil production and underdelivering. However, the current target looks more achievable due to several factors. Firstly, Iraq has sufficient oil reserves, with an estimated 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is nearly 18% of the Middle East's total and around 9% of the world's.

Secondly, there has been a decline in corruption in Iraq, which had led to a mass exodus of Western firms. However, with new sanctions imposed by Washington on Baghdad for aiding Iran, several key firms have returned. One such firm is French supermajor TotalEnergies, which has ratified a US$27-billion four-pronged mega-project that will increase gas capture during oil drilling and boost production from the Ratawi oil field.

Finally, the treatment and redirection of seawater to Iraq's biggest oil fields through the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) is expected to stabilise and boost pressure at these sites. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that Iraq could reach 11.5 million bpd in oil production from just its super-giant fields, assuming a functioning CSSP and adequate sustained investment.