Iraq Targets 8-10 Million Bpd Oil Output by 2030

Iraq has dispatched a high-level delegation to Saudi Arabia to negotiate for a higher oil production quota within OPEC. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced the move during the Baghdad Dialog policy conference, revealing plans to boost Iraq’s oil output to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within the next six years. The delegation, led by Iraq’s oil and finance ministers, aims to secure a revised OPEC quota to support this ambitious target.

The push for increased production comes as Iraq seeks to recover from significant disruptions caused by the Iran war, which has severely impacted global oil supplies. Before the conflict, Iraq produced around 4 million barrels per day, but the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has hampered exports. The strait, a critical waterway, previously carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, though traffic has since dropped due to ongoing attacks and instability.

To mitigate future risks, Iraq is exploring alternative export routes, including expanding exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port and establishing new pipelines to Syria’s Baniyas port and Jordan’s Aqaba port. Prime Minister al-Zaidi noted that constructing a pipeline to Syria’s Baniyas could take up to four years and cost at least $15 billion. Currently, the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline to Ceyhan, Iraq’s only operational oil export pipeline, carries around 170,000 barrels per day.

OPEC+ has engaged Texas-based consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton to assess the maximum sustainable capacities of its member countries, including Iraq. The findings, expected by the end of September, will inform discussions on new production baselines starting in 2027. These talks are often fraught with tension, as higher baselines typically result in larger production allowances, giving countries like Iraq strong incentives to push for favorable adjustments.