Ireland's Tillage Sector on Brink of Collapse Amid Global Market Shifts

The cereal harvest of 2026 has been one for the books, but not in a good way. Despite favorable weather conditions, yields have plummeted and grain prices are at an all-time low. For hundreds of Irish farm families, this may be their last harvest. The breakeven yield required for spring barley is 3.13t/acre at €180/t, but prices are expected to reach only €200/t with actual yields averaging around 2.3t/acre.

This decline in profitability is not unique to Ireland or the EU. Globally, margins from arable farming are declining while those from livestock farming are increasing. The 'protein rush' has seen lamb and cattle prices double since 2020, with dairy prices also on the rise. This trend is not limited to Ireland or the EU, but is a global phenomenon.

The situation is further complicated by government supports in countries like the US, where crop insurance and margin protection guarantee farmers a return from cropping regardless of prices. Even with low margins, production is incentivized as it brings revenue into war-torn nations like Russia and Ukraine.