Israel's Gas Market in Crisis: Export vs. Domestic Supply Dilemma
The Dayan Committee's final report on Israel's gas market has revealed deep divides among policymakers over how much gas to reserve for domestic consumption and how much to export. The committee, tasked with reviewing natural gas policy and strengthening energy security through 2048, estimates that cumulative domestic demand will reach about 515 billion cubic meters by then.
The report acknowledges the need for a supply cushion but does not impose a hard numerical requirement on excess production capacity above expected demand. Finance Ministry and Competition Authority representatives had pushed for daily surplus capacity of roughly 13% to 20% above demand, while the Electricity Authority sought at least 10%. The Energy Ministry opposed setting a fixed figure.
The committee's policy also keeps the domestic reservation requirement at 440 billion cubic meters, which is lower than the Finance Ministry, Competition Authority, and Environmental Protection Ministry-supported increase to at least 515 BCM. This disagreement matters because Israel is planning for increased electricity demand, new gas-fired power generation, and an expansion of renewable energy.
The report highlights the importance of a comprehensive national energy plan that would force policymakers to decide on Israel's energy mix over the coming decades. A dedicated natural gas team would be tasked with developing measurable standards for energy security and examining gas import and storage infrastructure.