Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) has revised its 2027 copper production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, marking the second downgrade this year. The company now expects to produce 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of copper, down from the previous estimate of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes. This adjustment follows an earlier reduction in March, which had lowered the target from 500,000 to 540,000 tonnes. Ivanhoe also raised its 2027 cash cost (C1) guidance to $2.50 to $3.00 per pound, up from $2.10 to $2.50, citing higher diesel prices, lower ore grades, and reduced production.
Robert Friedland, Ivanhoe’s founder and co-chairman, attributed the changes to a disciplined approach aimed at operational stability and sustainable recovery. The company plans to introduce shallow open-pit mining alongside underground operations, with stripping of waste rock set to begin in the first quarter of 2027. However, the restart of production mining on the eastern side of Kakula has been pushed back to late March 2028, further delaying the mine’s recovery.
Analyst Craig Hutchison of TD Cowen downgraded Ivanhoe to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut his target price to C$9 ($6.42) from C$14. Hutchison noted that the path to 500,000 tonnes per year has become longer, more capital-intensive, and more dependent on future execution. Despite these setbacks, Ivanhoe plans to begin detailed engineering for a Phase 4 concentrator expansion in early 2027, aiming to lift annual copper production capacity to approximately 500,000 tonnes.
Meanwhile, copper prices fell 2.1% to $14,034 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday, reflecting broader market uncertainty. In contrast, Canadian producer Hudbay Minerals (TSX, NYSE: HBM) agreed to lead a C$49.8 million investment in Pecoy Copper, highlighting the ongoing efforts to finance new copper projects despite near-term challenges.