Japan is on track to reclaim its position as the world's largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this year, surpassing China for the first time since 2022. Analysts at ICIS and Kpler, cited by Reuters, attribute this shift to elevated LNG prices and China's adequate storage levels, which have reduced Chinese purchases. According to ICIS, Japan is projected to import 62 million metric tons of LNG this year, slightly ahead of China's 61 million tons. Kpler's estimates are similarly close, with Japan at 63 million tons and China at 62 million tons.
China first became the top LNG importer in 2021, but COVID-related lockdowns returned Japan to the top spot in 2022. China regained the lead in 2023 and held it through 2025. This year, a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted LNG shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, leading to a sharp decline in Asian import demand as spot cargo prices climbed. Chinese buyers had already built sufficient gas stockpiles during the Iran war, with underground storage at 80 percent capacity by the end of September.
Weaker Chinese demand for spot supply this winter could ease conditions for other LNG customers in Asia and Europe, many of which have faced high spot prices and intense competition for supply. Japan, meanwhile, reduced gas-fired generation this summer in favor of coal as LNG prices remained elevated. LNG prices in Asia surged to a four-year high due to limited cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz and increased competition with Europe for winter supply.