Japan's Rice Boom Could Cut Wheat and Corn Demand
Japan's rice production is on the rise, setting the stage for a potential shift in domestic demand away from wheat and corn. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts rice output to reach 7.37 million tons in 2026/27, a 100,000-ton increase year-over-year. This recovery in rice supplies is expected to lower prices after the historic highs of 2024-2025, boosting consumption by 7% to 7.9 million tons.
The increased rice availability could have broader implications for Japan's feed market. Larger rice supplies may reduce the need for feed corn and wheat, depending on government decisions regarding private stocks and state reserves. With domestic supplies stabilizing, Japan is expected to import only the minimum market access volume of rice.
On the export front, Japan's rice shipments are forecast to rise by 22% to 80,000 tons in 2026/27. This growth is anticipated to be driven by a recovery in food aid shipments from government stocks and continued commercial sales. The weaker yen and higher prices for imported food products have also supported domestic rice demand.