JPMorgan Abandons Iran Conflict End Forecast Amid Ongoing Oil Market Disruption
JPMorgan has revised its forecast for the end of the Iran conflict due to mounting disruption across oil markets.
The bank had initially expected economic pressure to force a path to de-escalation by June, but now says the war's end is too uncertain to model.
This shift in outlook comes as key thresholds in crude prices, Treasury yields, and retail fuel costs have been breached. Brent crude trades near $105 against JPMorgan's fair value estimate of $90 a barrel, while oil inventories remain sufficient to cushion a prolonged supply shock.
The conflict continues to widen, with Saudi Arabia shutting its East-West pipeline after a drone attack from Iraq and Iran-allied Houthi militants making advances that could tighten their control over tanker traffic in the southern Red Sea.