JPMorgan Loses Grip on Oil Prices as Iran War Escalates

JPMorgan is losing its grip on oil prices as the Iran war continues to escalate. The bank's analysts say they can no longer predict where oil markets are headed, citing the uncertainty surrounding the conflict's endgame.

In February, JPMorgan had assumed certain economic thresholds that the US administration would not cross. However, six months into the war, many of those lines have been crossed, leaving the bank without a clear baseline view for oil markets.

The bank estimates Brent's fair value at around $90 per barrel for September, compared to current prices near $106. This suggests that markets are pricing in the risk of further supply losses beyond the estimated 10 million barrels per day already disrupted.