JPMorgan Sees Brent Crude Prices Staying High Through 2026 Despite Hormuz Reopening

JPMorgan analysts expect Brent crude prices to remain in the low $100s for most of 2026, despite the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June. According to their revised framework, the oil market will stay tight due to accelerating inventory draws and logistical bottlenecks.

The bank's base case assumes that the Strait reopens on June 1 following a credible announcement from both sides. However, prices are unlikely to normalize quickly, as OECD commercial inventories approach operational stress levels by August.

JPMorgan expects Brent crude to average $96 per barrel in 2026, with quarterly averages of $103 in the second quarter, $104 in the third quarter, and $98 in the fourth quarter. The bank also forecasts that producers in the Gulf will maximize output after the Strait reopens in an effort to recoup lost revenues.