Kazakhstan’s National Bank has announced plans to sell foreign currency worth KZT 302 billion in November 2026, a move tied to its domestic gold purchase operations. The sales aim to neutralize liquidity created when the central bank buys gold from local producers, rather than targeting a specific exchange rate. In October, the bank sterilized a similar amount, and the November sales are expected to follow the same mechanism.
The tenge weakened by 3% in October, ending the month at KZT 453.77 per US dollar. Despite this depreciation, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) did not intervene directly in the foreign exchange market. The planned sales, equivalent to approximately $666 million, represent about 7.9% of October’s total reported turnover on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE).
The gold-purchase mirroring mechanism involves three stages: paying tenge for gold, selling foreign currency to absorb tenge liquidity, and neutralizing the liquidity. This process is distinct from other operations, such as those involving the National Fund and the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF). The NBK also disclosed purchasing $910 million from the National Fund and $568 million for UAPF assets in October.
The impact of these sales on the USD/KZT exchange rate remains uncertain. While increased dollar supply could ease upward pressure on the exchange rate, the actual effect will depend on market demand and broader economic conditions. The NBK has not set a specific exchange rate target, maintaining a floating exchange-rate regime.