Kazakhstan's Oil Exports Crippled by Production Shortfalls and Disrupted Routes

Kazakhstan's oil production has fallen short of its target for the first eight months of this year, hindering the country's ability to offset a looming global energy crisis. Oil production in Kazakhstan dropped 8.4% below its original target, reaching 61.7 million tons by August.

The Karachaganak oil and gas field, one of Kazakhstan's largest, is undergoing scheduled maintenance that will continue to limit production capacity until it is completed. As a result, the government has reduced its annual production forecast from 100 million tons to 96 million tons, down from 99.6 million tons in 2025.

Kazakhstan relies heavily on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route to export oil to Russia's Novorossiysk port. However, terminal facilities in Novorossiysk have been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, disrupting exports and limiting alternative routes for Kazakh crude.

The government has explored the possibility of increasing export volumes via a trans-Caspian route to Azerbaijan, but logistical constraints limit export capacity. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline can only handle up to 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil per year, while the Baku-Supsa pipeline has the potential to carry an additional 5 million tons annually.