Kazakhstan's Oil Sector Resilient Despite Disruptions

Kazakhstan's oil sector faced significant challenges in the first seven months of 2026, with production dropping by 8.9% to 53.2 million tons due to disruptions at the Tengiz field and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Despite this decline, export revenues remained steady, highlighting the country's resilience in the face of oil infrastructure disruptions.

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that oil and gas condensate production totaled 45.7 million tons in the first half of the year, down 8.4% year-on-year, while July output fell by 12%. The CPC route accounts for over 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, making problems affecting a single export corridor quickly spread to logistics and production.

The impact was felt across the extractive economy, with mining and quarrying output declining by 4.4% in January-July, pipeline freight turnover falling 2.9%, and industrial production in the oil-producing Atyrau Region decreasing by 7.8%. However, coal production rose 12% to 58.9 million tons.

The most striking contrast is between oil production and Kazakhstan's trade performance. Foreign trade turnover reached $71.8 billion in January-June, up 7.2% year-on-year, with exports increasing 8.6% to $40.3 billion while imports grew 5.4% to $31.5 billion.

Kazakhstan's economy grew 4.1% in the first half of 2026 despite the decline in oil production, with non-commodity sectors playing an important role in supporting growth. The country's dependence on hydrocarbons remains significant, with oil accounting for nearly half of export revenues in the first half.