Kotak Lowers Gold Imports Forecast Amid Rising Prices and Higher Duties

Kotak Institutional Equities has revised its forecast for India's gold imports downward to $88 billion in FY2027, citing rising prices and increased import duty.

The firm notes that official monthly imports declined in May, with total imports in the initial five months of FY2027 standing at $17.5 billion, down from $16.9 billion in the corresponding period last year.

The increase in gold import duty from 6% to 15%, combined with record gold prices, has pushed up gold prices in the domestic market and reduced demand.

Kotak analysts believe that gold imports will witness some improvement during the upcoming festive season, but there is an element of risk depending on the trend observed during the initial months of FY2027.