Latin America Braces for 'Super-Strength' El Niño Disruption
El Niño weather pattern is expected to disrupt supply chains and commodity production in Latin America as it continues into 2027. Temperatures recorded in the Pacific Ocean are already higher than the previous record set in 2015, and the phenomenon is not set to peak until December.
According to a report from global risk data company Verisk Maplecroft, exports such as Central American coffee and maize, Peruvian copper, and Southern Cone soybeans could be particularly vulnerable. The report's hazard vulnerability index assesses how well countries can absorb climate disruption by comparing factors such as annual economic loss from natural hazards.
Central America and the Andean region will be the most vulnerable, with Venezuela, Bolivia, and Argentina especially at risk. Peru, a major producer of copper, was badly affected by the 2017 El Niño, but the report said that most of the repair work was still unfinished, meaning the effects of this year's will be worse.
Mining is particularly sensitive to variations in rainfall: too little restricts output and too much threatens mines and access routes with floods and landslides. Copper prices hit a record US$6.50/lb earlier this year, and any impact on supply could trigger even higher prices.