LME Copper Dip Drives Down India-Brass Billet Prices to China

India-origin brass billet prices to China have fallen due to the decline in LME Copper 3-month benchmark. The price dropped by around 2.25% from $14,760/mt on September 22 to approximately $14,427.50/mt on September 29. This decrease had a ripple effect on India-origin brass billets for export to China, with prices assessed at 62.5-63.5% of LME Copper 3-month this week compared to 62-63% last week.

The wider percentage spread did not translate to stronger Chinese demand; instead, it indicated that the billet value component remained relatively resilient against the falling copper benchmark. The CFR China price for India-origin brass billets declined from approximately $9,151-9,299/mt last week to $9,017-9,161/mt this week.

Chinese domestic brass rod demand remains weak, with operating rates at 37.90% during September 25-October 1, down 11.93 percentage points month on month. High copper prices and tight recycled brass raw-material availability are putting pressure on Chinese producers, leading to slim processing profits and subdued domestic consumption.

SMM expects the operating rate of sampled Chinese brass rod enterprises to decline further to 34.51% in October, indicating limited near-term demand support for imported Indian billets. The combination of high copper prices, tight recycled brass raw-material availability, and the extended holiday period is likely to keep Chinese buyers cautious.