Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest level since the Iran war began, with 31 tankers passing last month compared to 27 in September, according to data from Kpler. Notably, most of these cargoes were loaded from Qatar’s Ras Laffan hub, despite it operating under force majeure. In two instances, LNG cargoes loaded at Ras Laffan were transferred to other tankers after the original vessels cleared the strait.
Despite the increase in loadings, Qatar’s LNG exports remain significantly below pre-war levels. In February, Qatar’s total LNG exports hit close to 6.2 million tons, while the October total stood at 2.7 million tons. The UAE, however, has managed to restore its LNG exports to pre-war levels, with October loadings from Das Island matching September’s total of seven.
Iranian attacks on U.S. allies in the Gulf have severely impacted Qatar’s export capacity, reducing it by 17% and causing an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue loss, according to QatarEnergy. The company has been working to fulfill its contracts despite the force majeure. Recently, Qatar secured two long-term deals with Cheniere Energy to buy up to 4 million tons per year of LNG from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi export facilities, with deliveries expected to begin in 2031 and continue through 2054.
Despite the recovery in LNG flows, Rystad Energy warned that this winter in the Northern Hemisphere will be highly uncertain in terms of energy security, with a strong likelihood of much higher gas prices due to tight supply.