LNG Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Still Far Below Pre-War Levels

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz are showing signs of recovery but remain significantly lower than pre-war levels. Recent tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg and Kpler indicates that at least three LNG carriers have passed through the strait since the end of last week. While this marks an improvement, shipping volumes are still more than 75% below those recorded before the conflict with Iran began.

In September, the Strait of Hormuz saw the passage of 21 LNG cargoes, the highest monthly number since the start of the war, according to Kpler estimates. However, this figure is still far below the pre-war daily average of three LNG cargoes. The strait, which historically accounted for one-fifth of global LNG supplies, has seen cargoes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in recent weeks, but these volumes have not been substantial enough to significantly impact the global LNG balance.

The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern. Most LNG carriers are navigating the strait in 'dark mode,' making it difficult to track voyages and assess flows accurately. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an attack on a tanker in the strait on Sunday, marking the eighth such incident in a week. These risks have contributed to the restriction of LNG supplies from the Middle East over the past six months, pushing September gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since the 2022-2023 energy crisis.