LNG Supply Growth Concentrates in US: Diversification Needed for Global Gas System Resilience

The global gas system has proven more resilient during the Strait of Hormuz crisis in 2026 compared to the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, according to the International Gas Union's (IGU) Global Gas Report 2026.

However, the report notes that future LNG supply growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in the US, which may create a concentration risk for importing countries. As of July 2026, the US had sanctioned 115.5M tonnes of liquefaction capacity over the previous five years, equivalent to around 22% of global operational liquefaction capacity in 2026.

The report emphasizes that diversification across suppliers and regions is necessary to avoid new concentration risks and strengthen system resilience. The IGU notes that the destination-flexible and market-based structure of US LNG gives buyers greater scope to redirect cargoes and diversify their supply portfolios, but more supply growth from the US will still require further diversification.

Global gas system resilience was tested during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, with TTF prices rising from US$10-12/MMBtu to above US$20/MMBtu. However, this impact was less severe than during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis, which saw peak prices exceeding US$70/MMBtu.