LNG Traffic Rises in Hormuz but Global Supply Risks Remain

The European liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is slowly recovering from the disruption caused by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. In September, 21 LNG tankers passed through the strait, the highest number since the war began. However, this is still only 25% of the pre-conflict volume, as around three carriers used to pass through daily, accounting for one-fifth of global LNG supplies.

Qatar, a major LNG exporter, has seen a rise in shipments through the strait, with four tankers recently passing through after a long halt. The first post-conflict Qatari LNG tanker only navigated the strait on May 10, more than two months after the war started. Despite the increase, supplies from Qatar remain at just a quarter of their previous level.

US LNG exports are filling the gap left by reduced supplies from the Persian Gulf. The US accounted for about a third of global LNG exports in September, up from 25% last year and 20% in 2022. European demand for US LNG is high, with Europe taking 54% of US exports in September. However, this shift in supply sources introduces new risks, including climate threats like hurricanes and political risks related to US dominance in the market.

European LNG imports are gradually recovering, with September 2026 imports reaching 107.9 TWh, compared to 117.3 TWh in the same month a year earlier. Overall, EU LNG supplies have fallen by 3.5% in the first nine months of 2026. The conflict's impact on global LNG markets continues to influence prices and supply dynamics, with Europe working to replenish its gas storage facilities ahead of winter.