Metal Prices Soar Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Tariff Uncertainty
The prices of industrial metals like copper, steel, and aluminum are highly responsive to changes in geopolitical activity, manufacturing demand, and policy-driven shifts. According to J.P. Morgan Global Research, the price of copper is forecasted to reach $14,800 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of this year.
This is driven by factors such as sulfur shortages, tight mine supply, an industrial boom, and the threat of U.S. tariffs. Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, believes that the medium-term environment for copper remains supportive, even at elevated prices.
The price of aluminum is forecasted to reach $3,800 per metric ton in the third quarter of 2026, and $3,700 in the fourth quarter, due to supply disruptions arising from the Middle East conflict and possible shifts in Chinese export policy. Shearer added that a material component of the rally in copper over the last six months is an embedded tariff uncertainty.
The price of steel remains highly region-dependent, with tariffs keeping prices elevated in the U.S. and EU, while China's property slump has driven prices down. Trade protection measures and supply disruptions are key determinants going forward.