Mexico Faces Record Corn Imports as Output Falls Amid Drought and High Costs

Mexico's corn production is facing significant challenges in 2026, with output projected to fall by 3% from the previous year to 23.5Mt, according to the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA). This decline has resulted in a widening deficit, driven by drought in Sinaloa, high input costs, limited financing, and low yields.

The country's reliance on US grain imports is expected to increase, with Mexico ranking as the world's seventh-largest corn producer but largest importer. In 2026, imports are projected to reach a record 24.8Mt, surpassing domestic production of 23.5Mt. The GCMA warns that this situation is not just a result of a poor harvest or temporary price fluctuations, but rather the consequence of poor public policy decisions.

GCMA's Director General, Juan Carlos Anaya, attributed the decline to depressed international prices, the appreciation of the peso, high production costs, insufficient access to financing and agricultural insurance, and a lack of certainty on commercialization before planting. 'Mexico needs a long-term national corn policy with a budget, clear rules, and measurable targets for area, productivity, production, and self-sufficiency,' he says.

The national average yield is approximately 3.8t/ha, compared to the US's 11.5t/ha, Ukraine's 7.1t/ha, China's 6.8t/ha, and a global average of 6.1t/ha. A significant portion of Mexican producers farm plots smaller than 5ha and rely on rain-fed agriculture.