Middle East Conflict Creates Rare Opportunity for African LNG Producers

A disruption to Middle Eastern exports has caused a shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the global market, creating an opportunity for African producers. According to Shell, approximately 36 million tonnes of LNG have been removed from the market due to the conflict in the region.

The lost volume is almost equal to the 39.8 million tonnes exported by Africa in 2025, highlighting both the scale and difficulty of replacing it quickly. The war has prevented Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from moving most of their LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route handling about one-fifth of global LNG trade.

The supply shock has pushed Asian spot LNG prices towards $30 per million British thermal units, nearly three times the approximately $10 recorded before the conflict. For buyers in Asia and Europe, the disruption increases the urgency of finding gas from producers whose shipping routes do not pass through Hormuz.