Middle East Conflict Drives Atlantic Basin LNG Prices to Three-Year High
The ongoing Middle East conflict has significantly impacted the Atlantic Basin LNG market, with prices continuing to soar five months after the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in February. According to S&P Global Energy data, Platts DES NWE LNG prices surged 63% to $15.479/MMBtu on March 2, and have since reached a three-and-a-half-year high of $20.746/MMBtu on July 22.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed due to the conflict, with no vessels traversing the waterway since the beginning of March. Prior to the outbreak, an average of three laden LNG tankers per day exited the Persian Gulf to markets in Asia.
The loss of supply from Qatar, which accounted for 32% of global LNG exports prior to the war, has been felt acutely in Asia and Europe. The US has stepped in to fill the gap, with exports to Asia increasing by 25% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.
Market participants expect prices to remain elevated due to tight fundamentals and limited new LNG export capacity coming online before 2027.