Middle East Conflict Exposes Kazakhstan's Oil Export Risks

Kazakhstan's oil logistics are in a precarious situation due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With prices above $100 per barrel, one would expect Kazakhstan to reap significant benefits from its commodity exports. However, the country's main export route passes through Russian territory via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system.

The CPC transports over two-thirds of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports, and any disruptions to this system can have far-reaching consequences for the global market. In July, drone attacks on tankers at the CPC marine terminal near Novorossiysk repeatedly interrupted loading operations, forcing Kazakhstan to reduce production by 7.4% in 2025.

Despite efforts to diversify exports through alternative routes such as the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline toward China, these channels are limited in capacity and cannot replace the Black Sea system. The Transportation Ministry reported that only 1.26 million tons of Kazakh oil were shipped across the Caspian toward the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in 2025, a mere fraction of the CPC's volumes.