Middle East Conflict Worsens Oil Supply Disruptions
The global oil market is once again under pressure due to ongoing supply disruptions from the Middle East. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that benchmark oil prices have risen over the past few weeks following renewed conflicts in the region, which have further disrupted oil exports.
Despite previous measures implemented to offset supply shortages, including the release of IEA emergency reserves and increased exports via alternative routes, the situation is starting to change again. The IEA's Head of Industry and Oil Markets Division, Toril Bosoni, warned that if Gulf region supplies remain constrained in the coming months while commercial stocks continue to decline, higher oil prices and further demand drops may be necessary to balance supply and demand.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been limited since the conflict began six months ago. In August 2026, oil flows averaged just 7.6 million barrels per day (bpd), which is 13.1 million bpd below pre-war levels. Cumulatively, lost exports through this route have approached 2.8 billion barrels.