Middle East Crude Export Volumes Recover Faster Than Expected Amid US-Iran Conflict

The Middle East crude transport artery has recovered faster than expected from the US-Iran conflict. According to estimates by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group, crude export volumes have approached pre-war levels, with a combined total of 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war volumes.

JPMorgan analysts noted that despite persistent shipping risks, Middle East oil export channels have largely resumed operations. The Strait of Hormuz transit has been particularly pronounced, with oil flows now approaching 13 million barrels per day, nearly returning to the peak seen in late June, driven primarily by Saudi Arabian exports.

Goldman Sachs offered a more optimistic estimate, including 'dark flows' - shipments transported through covert means. The bank noted that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly in line with the 2025 average. However, both firms emphasized that the rebound in transport volumes should not be misconstrued as an improvement in the security environment.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that despite the recovery in Persian Gulf exports, crude prices remain relatively well-supported, and further damage to energy infrastructure from an escalation in the conflict could still push oil prices significantly higher. Brent crude futures are on track to post a monthly gain of approximately 14% in September.