Middle East crude exports climb despite rising Strait of Hormuz attacks
Middle East crude oil exports have surged past pre-war levels in late September, despite a rise in attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler shows that crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). This marks a significant increase from the average of around 18 million bpd recorded between March 2025 and February 2026, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
On October 1, the seven-day moving average for Middle Eastern crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd. The figures cover shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Total shipments of crude oil, petroleum products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd during the seven days to September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased in September, reaching their highest monthly level since February.
The recovery in shipping traffic has coincided with a rise in security incidents. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was hit by an unidentified projectile while operating in the strait, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were safely evacuated. Kpler data showed the vessel had last been seen discharging 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Oman’s Ras Markaz port on September 17.
Marisks warned that merchant vessels using the Strait of Hormuz face a heightened and increasingly unpredictable threat as traffic through the waterway increases. The firm suggested that Iranian forces may be firing missiles into a predetermined engagement area, or “kill box,” where weapons could potentially acquire radar signatures from vessels present in the area. This means simply being present within the engagement zone at the relevant time could expose commercial vessels to attack.