Middle East crude exports rebound above pre-war levels

Crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassed pre-war levels in four out of seven days during the final week of September, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. On September 24, exports peaked at 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd), with daily shipments fluctuating between 19 million bpd and 22.5 million bpd from September 27 to 29.

Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, Middle East exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026. As of October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

The combined exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days leading up to September 30. Kpler noted that this tally excludes vessels that may have crossed maritime gateways with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off to avoid detection.

Before the Iran war began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container vessels. These vessels accounted for roughly 20% of the world's daily crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply.