Middle East Crude Exports Rebound Amid Rising Tanker Attacks
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to levels exceeding those recorded before the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler revealed that exports surged to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and between September 27 and 29. This marks a significant increase from the average of 18 million bpd observed between March 2025 and February 2026, just before the conflict began.
The 7-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, 2026. The figures include transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Overall, the tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days leading up to September 30. Additionally, the number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose to its highest monthly level since February 2026.
Despite the surge in exports, the region continues to face security challenges. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were safely evacuated. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has documented at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Marisks warned that merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.' The firm suggested that Iranian forces might be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within those zones. The physical presence of vessels in these areas at the relevant times could itself represent a primary exposure to risk.