Middle East Crude Exports Rebound to Pre-War Levels via Alternative Routes

Middle East Gulf crude oil exports, excluding Iran, reached pre-war levels in September despite ongoing threats in the Strait of Hormuz. According to maritime tracking firm Kpler, the region shipped at least 16.5 million barrels per day from September 1 to 28, matching pre-conflict volumes when Iran is excluded. This marked a significant rebound from March, when daily exports averaged 6 million barrels per day.

To circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, two-fifths of shipments now use alternative routes, up from 17 percent before the war. Key workarounds include pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The majority of crude still passing through the strait is transferred between tankers at sea. The Red Sea has also become a preferred route to avoid Iran's attempted blockade, with the export data including shipments through this alternative path.

Crude oil prices remain elevated due to the upheaval in strait shipping. On October 5, 2026, December-delivery Brent crude futures traded at $102.25 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $90.50. Before the conflict, Brent futures were near $72. Despite the export recovery, experts warn that conditions are far from normal, with a US blockade on Iranian ports continuing to limit Iran's oil exports.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have benefited from pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which links eastern oil fields to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, was temporarily shut down after strikes from Iraq but resumed operations on September 22. The UAE's pipeline connects Abu Dhabi's oil fields to Fujairah, a terminal on the Gulf of Oman beyond the strait.