Middle East Crude Exports Recover Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Middle Eastern crude oil exports have rebounded to pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data from Kpler revealed that exports exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February 2024, exports averaged 18 million bpd. The 7-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd as of October 1.

While crude oil shipments have surged, security risks persist. At least seven attacks on tankers were reported in and around the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping intelligence firm Marisks. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. The tanker, owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ras Markaz port in Oman.

Marisks warned that merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.' The agency suggested that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area, rather than targeting specific vessels. Meanwhile, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack daily in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Despite the security concerns, overall exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose to their highest monthly level since February. The data excludes vessels with turned-off transponders to avoid detection.