Middle East Crude Exports Surpass Pre-War Levels

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surged past pre-war levels, according to data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. On four of the seven days in the final week of September, exports exceeded the region's earlier benchmarks, peaking at 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24.

From September 27 to 29, exports fluctuated between 19 million bpd and 22.5 million bpd. Before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began, the average was 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026. As of October 1, the seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd, encompassing shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

The combined exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days leading up to September 30. However, this figure excludes vessels that may have bypassed the maritime gateway with their Automatic Identification System transponders turned off to avoid detection.

Prior to the Iran war, which started on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container vessels. This accounted for roughly 20% of the world's daily crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply.