Middle East Exports Weigh on Oil Prices Amid Supply Uncertainty
Oil prices are facing downward pressure as Middle East exports rise, easing concerns over supply disruptions. On Tuesday, Brent oil hovered near $104 a barrel, while WTI oil was around $90. Both benchmarks fell over 2% on Monday after shipping data revealed that regional crude exports surpassed pre-war levels on four days in late September. Despite risks around the Strait of Hormuz, more oil is reaching buyers, which could limit price recoveries.
The ongoing conflict in Yemen adds to market caution. The Houthi group claimed attacks on Saudi sites, including the Aramco refinery in Rabigh, though Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any production losses. Meanwhile, unresolved talks between the US and Iran leave regional supplies vulnerable to further disruptions.
Technical analysis shows WTI crude oil consolidating around $90, with key support at $87 and resistance at $94. A break below $87 could push prices toward $83, while a rise above $94 might target $104. Brent oil is holding above $99, with critical resistance at $113. A breakout above this level could aim for $120, but a drop below $99 risks a decline toward $95.
The outlook remains volatile, with export increases likely to cap price gains, while any confirmed damage to energy facilities could trigger sharp rallies. Traders are closely watching both supply dynamics and technical levels to gauge the next move in oil markets.