Middle East oil exports briefly surpass pre-war levels amid rising tanker threats

Middle East oil exports briefly surpassed pre-war levels in September, according to shipping data. The seven-day moving average for crude exports from the Persian Gulf reached 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 30, with volumes exceeding pre-war levels on 14 days in the month. This follows a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, which has since lapsed, allowing for increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Oman.

The surge in exports was primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, which loaded crude from both the Red Sea and the Gulf after a September 10 attack on its East-West pipeline. Iraq also secured permission from Iran to allow Iraqi oil tankers to pass through Hormuz, further boosting shipments. Shipping data provider Vortexa reported that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports hit 18.6 million bpd, returning to pre-conflict levels.

Despite the increase, the outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing attacks on tankers. Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, warned of a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat" in the Strait of Hormuz. At least seven incidents were reported in the past week, including attacks on the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Kazimah III and the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi. The crew members were reported safe, but the incidents highlight the risks facing oil shipments in the region.

Analysts note that the increase in Middle East supplies will help alleviate tightness in the oil market, particularly for Asian refiners. Senior market analyst Xavier Tang attributed most of the month-over-month increase in September to Saudi Arabia, which is ramping up exports to regain market share. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to their highest since February.