Middle East oil exports exceed pre-war levels bypassing Hormuz

Middle East oil exports, excluding Iran, have surpassed pre-war levels for the first time since the conflict began in late February. This rebound comes as Gulf producers increasingly rely on pipelines and alternative shipping routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler shows that the weekly average of regional oil shipments briefly exceeded the pre-conflict level of roughly 18 million barrels per day. Crude exports alone returned to pre-war levels in September, with at least 16.5 million barrels per day leaving the region excluding Iran.

Around 40 percent of oil exports now bypass Hormuz, with much of the remaining crude transferred between tankers offshore. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played key roles in this shift, utilizing pipelines to divert supply. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which connects its main oil-producing areas to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, resumed operations on Sept. 22 after being shut down on Sept. 11 following strikes launched from Iraq. The UAE also has an alternative export route through its pipeline connecting Abu Dhabi's oil fields with Fujairah.

The recovery in shipments has begun to weigh on oil prices. Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.79 percent to $101.44 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery declined 1.20 percent to $90.02. The Group of Seven countries also agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months, further increasing available supply. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that rising supplies from the Gulf and the G7 release should help push gasoline and diesel prices lower, though he acknowledged the conflict still carries considerable uncertainty.

Despite the rebound, shipping costs remain higher, exporters are using less efficient routes, and alternative pipelines are being pushed toward their maximum capacity. Iran itself remains excluded from the broader rebound, with Tehran deprived of a significant portion of its own oil exports due to a U.S. counterblockade targeting Iranian ports. While market conditions look stronger than they did during the early months of the conflict, underlying risks have not disappeared. Continued attacks on vessels or oil infrastructure could again restrict supplies, and bypass routes have limited spare capacity if disruptions intensify.