Middle East Oil Exports Near Full Recovery

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels after months of disruptions due to the US-Iran conflict. JPMorgan Chase & Co. notes that crude shipments from the region have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, representing 98% of pre-war levels.

The recovery has been driven primarily by Saudi Arabia, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz reaching nearly 13 million barrels per day. However, refined petroleum products such as diesel and gasoline are still lagging behind, with shipments at about 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to only 58% of their pre-war volumes.

The continued increase in tanker crossings should not be seen as an improvement in the security environment, but rather as evidence of the oil industry's ability to operate despite sustained risks. Brent crude prices remain above $100 per barrel, compared to about $72.48 per barrel on February 27 before the war began.