Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels Amid Ongoing Conflict
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels, according to JP Morgan. The bank's commodity analysts estimated that in September daily oil flows averaged 17.5 million barrels per day, which is 98% of pre-war levels. This marks a significant rebound for the region, despite ongoing conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for Middle East oil exports, saw oil flows return to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels per day, led by Saudi Arabia. However, JP Morgan cautioned that increased crossings should not be taken as improved safety, but rather as the industry's ability to operate under risk.
Other estimates vary, with Goldman Sachs estimating oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels per day, including tankers sailing in 'dark mode' to avoid detection. In contrast, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put Persian Gulf oil exports at 17 million barrels per day.