Middle East oil exports rebound amid Strait of Hormuz attacks

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surged past pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, exports exceeded pre-war volumes on September 24 and between September 27-29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February 2026, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.

The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1. This includes shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and other routes. Overall, exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz also hit their highest monthly level since February.

However, security risks persist. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. The vessel had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude in Oman. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has documented at least one attack per day in the region since October 2.

Marisks warned that merchant vessels face a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.' They noted that recent incidents may not involve deliberate targeting of specific ships, but rather missiles launched into predetermined engagement zones.