Middle East oil exports rebound amid Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

Crude oil exports from the Middle East surged above pre-war levels in four of the final week of September, despite ongoing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, exports hit between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and between September 27 and 29. Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February, exports averaged 18 million bpd. The 7-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1.

The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days ending September 30. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also reached their highest monthly level since February. These figures exclude vessels with turned-off transponders to avoid detection.

However, attacks on tankers persisted. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were evacuated safely. The vessel had previously discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ras Markaz port in Oman on September 17.

UK Maritime Trade Operations reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Marisks warned of a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat' due to the sharp rise in traffic. They suggested that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into a 'kill box,' targeting available radar signatures within that area.