Middle East Oil Exports Rebound Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surpassed pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data from Kpler revealed that exports exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February this year.
The 7-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, including transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Overall, the region's exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30.
Attacks on tankers continued in the Strait of Hormuz, with at least seven incidents reported by shipping intelligence firm Marisks. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were evacuated safely. The vessel had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ras Markaz port in Oman.
Marisks warned that merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.' The firm suggested that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, potentially targeting any radar signatures within those zones.